By Paul Soita
_*How and why Fatuma Achani Could Easily Secure a 2nd term… Part 2*_
As explained previously, the only weapon for Muungano against Tolwa is the vote margin, the vote margin has to be the highest possible; it’s the whole reason why there is Muungano in the first place.
There would be no Muungano if each party thought and believed they could individually mobilize votes to win the election.
The second item for consideration is;
_*2. The Inevitable doom*_
There are only two slots available for Muungano;
The position of Governor candidate and the position of Deputy Governor candidate.
One of the candidates comes from Msambweni Constituency (Where Fatuma Achani comes from) and the second candidate comes from Kinango Constituency.
While there will be no problem as to where the position of Governor candidate will come from, there will be a problem where they will choose to place the Deputy Governor candidate, whether Muungano likes it or not, they will certainly lose votes on one side depending on where they choose to place the position of Deputy Governor.
If the position of Deputy Governor goes to Msambweni where Fatuma Achani comes from, Tolwa will present an argument asking if people will abandon the position of governor and go for Deputy Governor…if the position of Deputy Governor goes to Kinango, Tolwa will ask the people whether they will wait for 15 years (2037) to get back to the governorship or vote for Fatuma Achani and reclaim the position of Governor in 2032 and you now add the CS Salim Mvurya’s influence.
Other arguments will probably be presented against whoever becomes the DG candidate that could sway the voters even further.
In whichever scenario; Tolwa will gain votes either way, and Muungano will lose votes either way. This will put another dent in the vote margin.
The only choice Muungano will have to make is to choose the path that leads to least destruction.
_*Part 3 coming*_
