By Paul Soita
The recent political events in Kwale County have been quite telling, one can either observe an almost dormant or inactive opposition (Muungano) or an actively engaged County government (Tolwa) struggling to try and secure a second term by all means.
In this context, Fatuma Achani would be win not because she is strong candidate, but because the opposition has failed to plan accordingly… yes, when compared to the merging Muungano, Achani is way far behind in numbers, it is said that an organised minority will always defeat a disorganised majority.
So, why is this so?
The greatest political weapon that the Muungano has is the power /tyranny of numbers based on the 2022 results. Which means if you added Eng. Lung’anzi 47k to Prof. Boga’s 53K, you get 100K votes, and top up that with Mwakwere’s 9K votes, you have a total of 109K votes against Fatuma Achani’s 59K votes she got in 2022, that is a whooping margin of nearly 60K votes.
In short, Tolwa’s main objective is to reduce that margin in the event there is muungano, and Muungano’s sole objective is to retain that margin as high as possible. A high margin for Muungano is extremely necessary and the ONLY potent weapon against any form of rigging.
So what are the issues of concern?;
_*1. Fighting the last war*_
First, while Tolwa are all out trying to onboard new players, including people who supported and campaigned for the opposition in 2022, Muungano is in a sleeper mode; trying to fight the last war; one senses that the expectations by Muuango is that the outcome of the 2022 will be automatically replicated in 2027, against the fact that the circumstances that were there in 2022 have significantly changed. The circumstances for 2027 will not be as they were in 2022.
One such change in circumstance is the passing on of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga who was a presidential candidate in 2022 and the leader of the ODM party.
Presidential candidates have a certain impact on voter turnout. In 2022, Raila Odinga had 125K votes in Kwale County against William Ruto’s 51K.
The total tally of the votes by all Muungano candidates nearly matches the votes that Raila Odinga got yet no single gubernatorial candidate got even half of Raila Odinga’s vote in Kwale County, meaning the Presidential candidate had more sway and weight over the individual gubernatorial candidates.
The absence of Raila Odinga and the status of the ODM Party as is currently witnessed will have a possible effect on the voter turnout. This voter turnout will largely affect Muungano vote blocks either jointly or individually.
This will potentially be the first dent in the vote margin, the ONLY tool needed by Muungano to secure a win. There are many other circumstances that have since changed that could be put into consideration; these include the decamping of some key political figures on both sides, the inclusion and absorption of all MPs into the Tolwa 2027 campaign, the absence of the state the state machinery (system and deep state) as was present when Uhuru Kenyatta was President in 2022 through Azimio etc.,
_*Part 2 Coming*_
